Milénium 1–3 Lipany: Result & Stats

Milénium

FT

1 – 3

Lipany

9/20/2020

3. liga - East · East - 9Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium26%

×Draw22%

Lipany52%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiléniumExpected goals in this matchLipany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

2.00

Milénium

1.37

Lipany

2.00

Lipany creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 80 away

1.29

creates per match

1.57

2.43

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Milénium

1.29

Lipany

1.57

allows per match

Milénium

2.43

Lipany

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par

Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Lipany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Milénium or draw

48%

Milénium or Lipany

78%

Draw or Lipany

74%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+

11%

Lipany wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals

75%

Milénium 2+ goals

40%

Milénium 3+ goals

16%

Lipany 1+ goals

86%

Lipany 2+ goals

59%

Lipany 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)

34%

Lipany (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lipany attack 1.57 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Milénium scores more

26%

level

22%

Lipany scores more

52%

Lipany at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff