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Milan vs Tallinding United — GFA League 2020

Milan
Milan
FT
2 – 1
Tallinding United
Tallinding United
7/8/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Milan31%
×Draw29%
Tallinding United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milan
1.03
Tallinding United
1.20

Tallinding United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Milan
0.85
Tallinding United
0.93

allows per match

Milan
1.46
Tallinding United
1.21

finishing

Milan+0.00on par
Tallinding United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan ↓

Tallinding United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Milan or draw
60%
Milan or Tallinding United
71%
Draw or Tallinding United
69%

Winning margin

Milan wins by 2+
12%
Tallinding United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Milan 1+ goals
64%
Milan 2+ goals
28%
Milan 3+ goals
9%
Tallinding United 1+ goals
70%
Tallinding United 2+ goals
34%
Tallinding United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Milan (draw refunded)
44%
Tallinding United (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Tallinding United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan attack 0.85 + Tallinding United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tallinding United attack 0.93 + Milan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Milan scores more
31%
level
29%
Tallinding United scores more
40%

Tallinding United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tallinding United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Milan 2–1 Tallinding United

Milan beat Tallinding United 2-1 in GFA League on July 8, 2021.