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Milan vs GAMTEL — GFA League 2020

Milan
Milan
FT
1 – 0
GAMTEL
GAMTEL
5/7/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Milan31%
×Draw29%
GAMTEL40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milan
0.99
GAMTEL
1.17

GAMTEL creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 43 away

creates per match

Milan
0.85
GAMTEL
0.88

allows per match

Milan
1.46
GAMTEL
1.12

finishing

Milan+0.00on par
GAMTEL+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan ↓

GAMTEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Milan or draw
60%
Milan or GAMTEL
71%
Draw or GAMTEL
69%

Winning margin

Milan wins by 2+
11%
GAMTEL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Milan 1+ goals
63%
Milan 2+ goals
26%
Milan 3+ goals
8%
GAMTEL 1+ goals
69%
GAMTEL 2+ goals
33%
GAMTEL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Milan (draw refunded)
44%
GAMTEL (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

GAMTEL away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan attack 0.85 + GAMTEL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

GAMTEL attack 0.88 + Milan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Milan scores more
31%
level
29%
GAMTEL scores more
40%

GAMTEL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GAMTEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Milan 1 – 0 GAMTEL

Milan beat GAMTEL 1-0 in GFA League on May 7, 2021.