Milan U20 2–1 Napoli U20: Result & Stats

Milan U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli U20

2/21/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Milan U2053%

×Draw24%

Napoli U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milan U20Expected goals in this matchNapoli U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.03

Milan U20

1.71

Napoli U20

1.03

Milan U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

0.89

1.18

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Milan U20

1.63

Napoli U20

0.89

allows per match

Milan U20

1.18

Napoli U20

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milan U20+0.00on par

Napoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U20 ↓

Napoli U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Milan U20 or draw

77%

Milan U20 or Napoli U20

76%

Draw or Napoli U20

47%

Winning margin

Milan U20 wins by 2+

29%

Napoli U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Milan U20 1+ goals

82%

Milan U20 2+ goals

51%

Milan U20 3+ goals

24%

Napoli U20 1+ goals

64%

Napoli U20 2+ goals

28%

Napoli U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Milan U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Napoli U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Napoli U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U20 attack 1.63 + Napoli U20 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Napoli U20 attack 0.89 + Milan U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Milan U20 scores more

53%

level

24%

Napoli U20 scores more

23%

Milan U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Milan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff