Milan U20 1–1 Frosinone U20: Result & Stats

Milan U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Frosinone U20

9/20/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 5Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Milan U2054%

×Draw23%

Frosinone U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milan U20Expected goals in this matchFrosinone U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.11

Milan U20

1.81

Frosinone U20

1.11

Milan U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

1.05

1.18

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Milan U20

1.63

Frosinone U20

1.05

allows per match

Milan U20

1.18

Frosinone U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milan U20+0.00on par

Frosinone U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U20 ↓

Frosinone U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Milan U20 or draw

77%

Milan U20 or Frosinone U20

77%

Draw or Frosinone U20

46%

Winning margin

Milan U20 wins by 2+

30%

Frosinone U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Milan U20 1+ goals

84%

Milan U20 2+ goals

54%

Milan U20 3+ goals

27%

Frosinone U20 1+ goals

67%

Frosinone U20 2+ goals

30%

Frosinone U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Milan U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Frosinone U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Frosinone U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U20 attack 1.63 + Frosinone U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Frosinone U20 attack 1.05 + Milan U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Milan U20 scores more

54%

level

23%

Frosinone U20 scores more

23%

Milan U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Milan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff