Milan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Milan U1940%
Sporting Braga U1935%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 11 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Milan U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Milan U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches
Sporting Braga U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Milan U19 attack 2.18 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.47
Sporting Braga U19 attack 2.00 + Milan U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Milan U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Milan U19 substitutes
Head to Head
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Crvena Zvezda U18
København U19
Olympique Marseille U19
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PAOK U19
Porto U19
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Lincoln Red Imps U19
Budućnost U19
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Juventus U19
Puskás Akadémia U19
Hibernian U19
Akureyri U19
Bayern München U19
Kairat U19
Atalanta U19
Pafos U19
R. Union SG U19
Galatasaray U18
Larne U19
Basel U19
Ludogorets U19
Fiorentina U19
Narva U19
2 Korriku U19
Racing Union U19
Arsenal U19
Vikingur U19
Brann U19
Trabzonspor U19
FS Jelgava U19
Austria Wien U19
Ordabasy U19
Baník Ostrava U19
Zrinjski U19
Be1 U19
Lokomotiva Zagreb U19
Haverfordwest U19
Brommapojkarna U19
AEK Larnaca U19
Naxxar U19
Sabah U19
Bravo U19
Newcastle United U19
Rabotnički U19
Inter Escaldes U19
Bodø / Glimt U19
Qarabağ U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Milan U19 host Sporting Braga U19 on Wednesday, 28 February 2024 at 13:30. The match is part of the UEFA Youth League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Milan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19
Milan U19 and Sporting Braga U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on February 28, 2024.
Goals: D. Sia (24', 120+5' pen), Dinis Rodrigues (66'), K. Zeroli (71', 120+9' pen), Rúben Furtado (90+4'), D. Bartesaghi (120+1' pen), João Vasconcelos (120+2' pen), J. Šimić (120+3' pen), Francisco Chissumba (120+6' pen).
The match was played at Puma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara in Milano.