Milan U19 1–1 Real Madrid U19: Result & Stats

Milan U19

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid U19

3/13/2024

UEFA Youth League · Quarter-finalsPuma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milan U1938%

×Draw23%

Real Madrid U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milan U19Expected goals in this matchReal Madrid U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.65

Milan U19

1.61

Real Madrid U19

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

2.18

creates per match

2.56

0.73

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Milan U19

2.18

Real Madrid U19

2.56

allows per match

Milan U19

0.73

Real Madrid U19

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milan U19+0.00on par

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Milan U19 or draw

61%

Milan U19 or Real Madrid U19

77%

Draw or Real Madrid U19

62%

Winning margin

Milan U19 wins by 2+

19%

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Milan U19 1+ goals

80%

Milan U19 2+ goals

48%

Milan U19 3+ goals

22%

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

81%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

49%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U19 attack 2.18 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.61

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + Milan U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Milan U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Real Madrid U19 scores more

39%

Real Madrid U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff