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Mika vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
1 – 1
West Armenia
West Armenia
5/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 33RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mika14%
×Draw17%
West Armenia69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
1.05
West Armenia
2.50

West Armenia creates 138% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Mika
1.98
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mika or draw
31%
Mika or West Armenia
83%
Draw or West Armenia
86%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
5%
West Armenia wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
65%
Mika 2+ goals
28%
Mika 3+ goals
9%
West Armenia 1+ goals
92%
West Armenia 2+ goals
71%
West Armenia 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
17%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mika scores more
14%
level
17%
West Armenia scores more
69%

West Armenia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Mika 1–1 West Armenia

Mika and West Armenia drew 1-1 in First League on May 26, 2023.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.