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Mika vs Lernayin Artsakh II — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
CANC
12:00
Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
4/9/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 24RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mika51%
×Draw21%
Lernayin Artsakh II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
2.06
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.49

Mika creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00

allows per match

Mika
1.98
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.22

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mika or draw
72%
Mika or Lernayin Artsakh II
79%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II
49%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
29%
Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
87%
Mika 2+ goals
61%
Mika 3+ goals
34%
Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
77%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
44%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
64%
Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mika scores more
51%
level
21%
Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
28%

Mika at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mika host Lernayin Artsakh II

April 9, 2023: Mika take on Lernayin Artsakh II in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mika host Lernayin Artsakh II at RCCSD Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.