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Mika vs Banants II — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Banants II
Banants II
11/28/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 16RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mika28%
×Draw23%
Banants II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
1.35
Banants II
1.84

Banants II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 99 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
Banants II
1.71

allows per match

Mika
1.98
Banants II
1.79

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

Banants II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mika or draw
51%
Mika or Banants II
77%
Draw or Banants II
72%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
12%
Banants II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
74%
Mika 2+ goals
39%
Mika 3+ goals
15%
Banants II 1+ goals
84%
Banants II 2+ goals
55%
Banants II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
37%
Banants II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.35

Banants II attack 1.71 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mika scores more
28%
level
23%
Banants II scores more
49%

Banants II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mika vs Banants II

Banants II beat Mika 3-0 in First League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.