Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mika vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ararat II
Ararat II
10/7/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 10MIKA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mika30%
×Draw23%
Ararat II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
1.38
Ararat II
1.77

Ararat II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 83 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Mika
1.98
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mika or draw
53%
Mika or Ararat II
77%
Draw or Ararat II
70%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
13%
Ararat II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
75%
Mika 2+ goals
40%
Mika 3+ goals
16%
Ararat II 1+ goals
83%
Ararat II 2+ goals
53%
Ararat II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
39%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mika scores more
30%
level
23%
Ararat II scores more
47%

Ararat II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mika 2 – 2 Ararat II

Mika and Ararat II drew 2-2 in First League on October 7, 2025.

The match was played at MIKA Stadium in Yerevan.