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Mika vs Alashkert — Premier League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alashkert
Alashkert
M. Manasyan 11'
11/7/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Mika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mika23%
×Draw29%
Alashkert49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
0.78
Alashkert
1.29

Alashkert creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 113 away

creates per match

Mika
0.33
Alashkert
1.42

allows per match

Mika
1.17
Alashkert
1.23

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
Alashkert+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

Alashkert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mika or draw
51%
Mika or Alashkert
71%
Draw or Alashkert
77%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
7%
Alashkert wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
54%
Mika 2+ goals
18%
Mika 3+ goals
4%
Alashkert 1+ goals
72%
Alashkert 2+ goals
37%
Alashkert 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
32%
Alashkert (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Alashkert away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.33 + Alashkert defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.78

Alashkert attack 1.42 + Mika defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mika scores more
23%
level
29%
Alashkert scores more
49%

Alashkert at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Manasyan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mika vs Alashkert

Alashkert beat Mika 1-0 in Premier League on November 7, 2015.

Goals: M. Manasyan (11').

The match was played at Mika in Yerevan.