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Mihajlovac vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
0 – 0
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
9/24/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 6Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mihajlovac42%
×Draw26%
Vrelo Sport33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.46
Vrelo Sport
1.27

Mihajlovac creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
67%
Mihajlovac or Vrelo Sport
74%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
58%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
20%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
77%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
43%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
18%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
72%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
36%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
56%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
42%
level
26%
Vrelo Sport scores more
33%

Mihajlovac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mihajlovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mihajlovac vs Vrelo Sport

Mihajlovac and Vrelo Sport drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.