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Mihajlovac vs Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
2 – 2
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
4/28/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 24Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac44%
×Draw25%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.52
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.24

Mihajlovac creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
0.88

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
1.83

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
69%
Mihajlovac or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
75%
Draw or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi
56%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
22%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
78%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
45%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
20%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals
71%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals
35%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
58%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.83 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 0.88 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
44%
level
25%
Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more
31%

Mihajlovac at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mihajlovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mihajlovac vs Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

Mihajlovac and Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - West on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.