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Mihajlovac vs Mladi Radnik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
2 – 2
Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
10/23/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 11Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac42%
×Draw26%
Mladi Radnik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.42
Mladi Radnik
1.18

Mihajlovac creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 87 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Mladi Radnik
0.76

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Mladi Radnik
1.64

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Mladi Radnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Mladi Radnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
69%
Mihajlovac or Mladi Radnik
74%
Draw or Mladi Radnik
58%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
20%
Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
76%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
41%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
17%
Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
69%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
33%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
58%
Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Mladi Radnik away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.64 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Mladi Radnik defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mladi Radnik attack 0.76 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
42%
level
26%
Mladi Radnik scores more
31%

Mihajlovac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mihajlovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mihajlovac 2–2 Mladi Radnik

Mihajlovac and Mladi Radnik drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - West on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.