Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mihajlovac vs Loznica — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
0 – 3
Loznica
Loznica
3/24/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 18Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac34%
×Draw27%
Loznica40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.21
Loznica
1.34

Loznica creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Loznica
1.08

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Loznica
1.23

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Loznica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
60%
Mihajlovac or Loznica
73%
Draw or Loznica
66%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
14%
Loznica wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
70%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
34%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
12%
Loznica 1+ goals
74%
Loznica 2+ goals
39%
Loznica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
46%
Loznica (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Loznica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Loznica defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Loznica attack 1.08 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
34%
level
27%
Loznica scores more
40%

Loznica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mihajlovac vs Loznica

Loznica beat Mihajlovac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.