Mihajlovac 1–0 Budućnost Arilje: Result & Stats

Mihajlovac

FT

1 – 0

Budućnost Arilje

5/7/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 25Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac41%

×Draw25%

Budućnost Arilje34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MihajlovacExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Arilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.35

Mihajlovac

1.52

Budućnost Arilje

1.35

Mihajlovac creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

1.20

creates per match

1.09

1.60

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Mihajlovac

1.20

Budućnost Arilje

1.09

allows per match

Mihajlovac

1.60

Budućnost Arilje

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Budućnost Arilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Budućnost Arilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw

66%

Mihajlovac or Budućnost Arilje

75%

Draw or Budućnost Arilje

59%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+

20%

Budućnost Arilje wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals

78%

Mihajlovac 2+ goals

45%

Mihajlovac 3+ goals

20%

Budućnost Arilje 1+ goals

74%

Budućnost Arilje 2+ goals

39%

Budućnost Arilje 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)

55%

Budućnost Arilje (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Budućnost Arilje away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Budućnost Arilje defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Budućnost Arilje attack 1.09 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mihajlovac scores more

41%

level

25%

Budućnost Arilje scores more

34%

Mihajlovac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mihajlovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff