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Mihajlovac vs Borac Cacak — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
0 – 3
Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
4/7/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 20Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac25%
×Draw24%
Borac Cacak51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.09
Borac Cacak
1.69

Borac Cacak creates 55% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Borac Cacak
1.78

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Borac Cacak
0.98

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Borac Cacak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
49%
Mihajlovac or Borac Cacak
76%
Draw or Borac Cacak
75%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
9%
Borac Cacak wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
66%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
30%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
10%
Borac Cacak 1+ goals
82%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
50%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
32%
Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Borac Cacak defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Borac Cacak attack 1.78 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
25%
level
24%
Borac Cacak scores more
51%

Borac Cacak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mihajlovac 0–3 Borac Cacak

Borac Cacak beat Mihajlovac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.