Miguelturreño 0–1 Torrijos: Result & Stats

Miguelturreño

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torrijos

2/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño31%

×Draw25%

Torrijos44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiguelturreñoExpected goals in this matchTorrijos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.55

Miguelturreño

1.27

Torrijos

1.55

Torrijos creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 74 away

1.18

creates per match

0.92

2.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Miguelturreño

1.18

Torrijos

0.92

allows per match

Miguelturreño

2.18

Torrijos

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par

Torrijos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

Torrijos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw

56%

Miguelturreño or Torrijos

75%

Draw or Torrijos

69%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+

13%

Torrijos wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals

72%

Miguelturreño 2+ goals

36%

Miguelturreño 3+ goals

14%

Torrijos 1+ goals

79%

Torrijos 2+ goals

46%

Torrijos 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)

42%

Torrijos (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Torrijos away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + Torrijos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Torrijos attack 0.92 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Miguelturreño scores more

31%

level

25%

Torrijos scores more

44%

Torrijos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torrijos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff