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Miguelturreño vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Miguelturreño
Miguelturreño
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Clemente
San Clemente
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño40%
×Draw25%
San Clemente36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miguelturreño
1.52
San Clemente
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Miguelturreño
1.18
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

Miguelturreño
2.18
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw
64%
Miguelturreño or San Clemente
75%
Draw or San Clemente
60%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+
19%
San Clemente wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals
78%
Miguelturreño 2+ goals
45%
Miguelturreño 3+ goals
20%
San Clemente 1+ goals
76%
San Clemente 2+ goals
42%
San Clemente 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)
52%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Miguelturreño scores more
40%
level
25%
San Clemente scores more
36%

Miguelturreño at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Miguelturreño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Miguelturreño 3–2 San Clemente

Miguelturreño beat San Clemente 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguelturra in Miguelturra.