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Miguelturreño vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Miguelturreño
Miguelturreño
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 5
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 30Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño23%
×Draw24%
Quintanar del Rey53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miguelturreño
1.05
Quintanar del Rey
1.71

Quintanar del Rey creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 94 away

creates per match

Miguelturreño
1.18
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Miguelturreño
2.18
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw
47%
Miguelturreño or Quintanar del Rey
76%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
77%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+
9%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals
65%
Miguelturreño 2+ goals
28%
Miguelturreño 3+ goals
9%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
82%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
51%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)
31%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Miguelturreño scores more
23%
level
24%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
53%

Quintanar del Rey at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Miguelturreño 1–7 Quintanar del Rey

Quintanar del Rey beat Miguelturreño 7-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguelturra in Miguelturra.