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Miguelturreño vs La Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Miguelturreño
Miguelturreño
FT
3 – 0
La Roda
La Roda
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño42%
×Draw25%
La Roda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miguelturreño
1.52
La Roda
1.30

Miguelturreño creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Miguelturreño
1.18
La Roda
0.41

allows per match

Miguelturreño
2.18
La Roda
1.85

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par
La Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

La Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw
67%
Miguelturreño or La Roda
75%
Draw or La Roda
58%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+
21%
La Roda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals
78%
Miguelturreño 2+ goals
45%
Miguelturreño 3+ goals
20%
La Roda 1+ goals
73%
La Roda 2+ goals
37%
La Roda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)
57%
La Roda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

La Roda away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + La Roda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

La Roda attack 0.41 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Miguelturreño scores more
42%
level
25%
La Roda scores more
33%

Miguelturreño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Miguelturreño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Miguelturreño 3 – 0 La Roda

Miguelturreño beat La Roda 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguelturra in Miguelturra.