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Miguelturreño vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Miguelturreño
Miguelturreño
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño32%
×Draw25%
Huracán Balazote43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miguelturreño
1.31
Huracán Balazote
1.56

Huracán Balazote creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Miguelturreño
1.18
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Miguelturreño
2.18
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw
57%
Miguelturreño or Huracán Balazote
75%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
68%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+
14%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals
73%
Miguelturreño 2+ goals
38%
Miguelturreño 3+ goals
14%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
79%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
46%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)
43%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Miguelturreño scores more
32%
level
25%
Huracán Balazote scores more
43%

Huracán Balazote at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miguelturreño vs Huracán Balazote

Miguelturreño and Huracán Balazote drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguelturra in Miguelturra.