Miguelturreño 4–0 Hogar Alcarreño: Result & Stats

Miguelturreño

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hogar Alcarreño

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 3Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño57%

×Draw20%

Hogar Alcarreño23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiguelturreñoExpected goals in this matchHogar Alcarreño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.42

Miguelturreño

2.33

Hogar Alcarreño

1.42

Miguelturreño creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.18

creates per match

0.65

2.18

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Miguelturreño

1.18

Hogar Alcarreño

0.65

allows per match

Miguelturreño

2.18

Hogar Alcarreño

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par

Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw

77%

Miguelturreño or Hogar Alcarreño

80%

Draw or Hogar Alcarreño

43%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+

36%

Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals

90%

Miguelturreño 2+ goals

67%

Miguelturreño 3+ goals

41%

Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals

76%

Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals

41%

Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)

72%

Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Miguelturreño scores more

57%

level

20%

Hogar Alcarreño scores more

23%

Miguelturreño at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Miguelturreño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff