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Miguelturreño vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Miguelturreño
Miguelturreño
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Conquense
Conquense
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Estadio Municipal Miguelturra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miguelturreño23%
×Draw24%
Conquense53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miguelturreño
1.02
Conquense
1.70

Conquense creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Miguelturreño
1.18
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Miguelturreño
2.18
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Miguelturreño+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelturreño ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Miguelturreño or draw
47%
Miguelturreño or Conquense
76%
Draw or Conquense
77%

Winning margin

Miguelturreño wins by 2+
8%
Conquense wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Miguelturreño 1+ goals
64%
Miguelturreño 2+ goals
27%
Miguelturreño 3+ goals
8%
Conquense 1+ goals
82%
Conquense 2+ goals
51%
Conquense 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Miguelturreño (draw refunded)
30%
Conquense (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelturreño at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelturreño attack 1.18 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Conquense attack 1.22 + Miguelturreño defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Miguelturreño scores more
23%
level
24%
Conquense scores more
53%

Conquense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Miguelturreño 0–4 Conquense

Conquense beat Miguelturreño 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguelturra in Miguelturra.