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Miguelense vs Sao Domingos AL — Alagoano - 2 2024

Miguelense
Miguelense
FT
4 – 0
Sao Domingos AL
Sao Domingos AL
4/22/2026Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Miguelense77%
×Draw15%
Sao Domingos AL8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miguelense
2.50
Sao Domingos AL
0.66

Miguelense creates 279% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Miguelense
1.36
Sao Domingos AL
0.13

allows per match

Miguelense
1.18
Sao Domingos AL
3.63

finishing

Miguelense+0.00on par
Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelense ↓

Sao Domingos AL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Miguelense or draw
92%
Miguelense or Sao Domingos AL
85%
Draw or Sao Domingos AL
23%

Winning margin

Miguelense wins by 2+
55%
Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Miguelense 1+ goals
92%
Miguelense 2+ goals
71%
Miguelense 3+ goals
45%
Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals
48%
Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals
14%
Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Miguelense (draw refunded)
91%
Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Sao Domingos AL away — creates 0.13, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelense attack 1.36 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.13 + Miguelense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Miguelense scores more
77%
level
15%
Sao Domingos AL scores more
8%

Miguelense at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Miguelense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Miguelense
Sao
Josivaldo
Manager: Josivaldo
Nadelio Rocha
Manager: Nadelio Rocha

Match Recap: Miguelense vs Sao Domingos AL

Miguelense beat Sao Domingos AL 4-0 in Alagoano - 2 on April 22, 2026.