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Migori Youth vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
2 – 0
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
6/22/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Migori Youth47%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.49
Zoo Kericho
1.07

Migori Youth creates 39% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 14 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
73%
Migori Youth or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
53%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
23%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
77%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
44%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
66%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
29%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
63%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Migori Youth scores more
47%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
27%

Migori Youth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Migori Youth 2–0 Zoo Kericho

Migori Youth beat Zoo Kericho 2-0 in Super League on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.