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Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
3/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Migori Youth57%
×Draw26%
Mombasa Elite16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.48
Mombasa Elite
0.65

Migori Youth creates 128% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
84%
Migori Youth or Mombasa Elite
74%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
43%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
30%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
77%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
43%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
19%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
48%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
14%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
78%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Migori Youth scores more
57%
level
26%
Mombasa Elite scores more
16%

Migori Youth at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Migori Youth 0–0 Mombasa Elite

Migori Youth and Mombasa Elite drew 0-0 in Super League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.