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Migori Youth vs MCF — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
1 – 0
MCF
MCF
2/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Migori Youth50%
×Draw29%
MCF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.28
MCF
0.70

Migori Youth creates 83% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
MCF
0.88

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
MCF
1.22

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

MCF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
80%
Migori Youth or MCF
71%
Draw or MCF
50%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
23%
MCF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
72%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
37%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
14%
MCF 1+ goals
50%
MCF 2+ goals
16%
MCF 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
71%
MCF (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

MCF attack 0.88 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Migori Youth scores more
50%
level
29%
MCF scores more
20%

Migori Youth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Migori Youth vs MCF

Migori Youth beat MCF 1-0 in Super League on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.