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Migori Youth vs Gusii — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gusii
Gusii
6/24/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 35Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Migori Youth59%
×Draw26%
Gusii15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.52
Gusii
0.61

Migori Youth creates 149% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 54 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Gusii
1.69

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
85%
Migori Youth or Gusii
74%
Draw or Gusii
41%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
32%
Gusii wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
78%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
45%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
20%
Gusii 1+ goals
46%
Gusii 2+ goals
13%
Gusii 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
80%
Gusii (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gusii attack 0.72 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Migori Youth scores more
59%
level
26%
Gusii scores more
15%

Migori Youth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Migori Youth 1–0 Gusii

Migori Youth beat Gusii 1-0 in Super League on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.