Migjorn 1–0 Poblense: Result & Stats

Migjorn

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Poblense

2/22/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23Camp Municipal Los Nogales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn17%

×Draw22%

Poblense61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MigjornExpected goals in this matchPoblense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.88

Migjorn

0.86

Poblense

1.88

Poblense creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

2.12

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Migjorn

1.00

Poblense

1.63

allows per match

Migjorn

2.12

Poblense

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par

Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

Poblense →

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw

39%

Migjorn or Poblense

78%

Draw or Poblense

83%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+

Poblense wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals

58%

Migjorn 2+ goals

21%

Migjorn 3+ goals

Poblense 1+ goals

85%

Poblense 2+ goals

56%

Poblense 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)

21%

Poblense (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Poblense attack 1.63 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Migjorn scores more

17%

level

22%

Poblense scores more

61%

Poblense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff