Migjorn 1–2 PE Sant Jordi: Result & Stats

Migjorn

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

PE Sant Jordi

4/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 29Camp Municipal Los Nogales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn30%

×Draw24%

PE Sant Jordi46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MigjornExpected goals in this matchPE Sant Jordi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.65

Migjorn

1.27

PE Sant Jordi

1.65

PE Sant Jordi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

2.12

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Migjorn

1.00

PE Sant Jordi

1.18

allows per match

Migjorn

2.12

PE Sant Jordi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

PE Sant Jordi →

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw

54%

Migjorn or PE Sant Jordi

76%

Draw or PE Sant Jordi

70%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+

12%

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals

72%

Migjorn 2+ goals

36%

Migjorn 3+ goals

14%

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

81%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

49%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)

39%

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Migjorn scores more

30%

level

24%

PE Sant Jordi scores more

46%

PE Sant Jordi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff