Migjorn 2–3 Manacor: Result & Stats

Migjorn

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Manacor

12/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Camp Municipal Los Nogales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn24%

×Draw24%

Manacor52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MigjornExpected goals in this matchManacor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.73

Migjorn

1.09

Manacor

1.73

Manacor creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

1.00

creates per match

1.34

2.12

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Migjorn

1.00

Manacor

1.34

allows per match

Migjorn

2.12

Manacor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par

Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

Manacor →

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw

48%

Migjorn or Manacor

76%

Draw or Manacor

76%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+

Manacor wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals

66%

Migjorn 2+ goals

30%

Migjorn 3+ goals

10%

Manacor 1+ goals

82%

Manacor 2+ goals

52%

Manacor 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)

31%

Manacor (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Manacor attack 1.34 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Migjorn scores more

24%

level

24%

Manacor scores more

52%

Manacor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff