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Migjorn vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Migjorn
Migjorn
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Binissalem
Binissalem
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Camp Municipal Los Nogales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn29%
×Draw25%
Binissalem46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migjorn
1.16
Binissalem
1.52

Binissalem creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

creates per match

Migjorn
1.00
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Migjorn
2.12
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw
54%
Migjorn or Binissalem
75%
Draw or Binissalem
71%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+
12%
Binissalem wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals
69%
Migjorn 2+ goals
32%
Migjorn 3+ goals
11%
Binissalem 1+ goals
78%
Binissalem 2+ goals
45%
Binissalem 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)
39%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Migjorn scores more
29%
level
25%
Binissalem scores more
46%

Binissalem at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Migjorn 2–3 Binissalem

Binissalem beat Migjorn 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Los Nogales in Menorca.