Mighty Tigers 1–0 Songwe Border United

Mighty Tigers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Songwe Border United

10/25/2025

Super League · Round 14Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mighty Tigers72%

×Draw19%

Songwe Border United9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mighty TigersExpected goals in this matchSongwe Border United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.55

Mighty Tigers

2.00

Songwe Border United

0.55

Mighty Tigers creates 264% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

1.06

creates per match

0.13

0.97

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Mighty Tigers

1.06

Songwe Border United

0.13

allows per match

Mighty Tigers

0.97

Songwe Border United

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Songwe Border United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw

91%

Mighty Tigers or Songwe Border United

81%

Draw or Songwe Border United

28%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+

46%

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals

86%

Mighty Tigers 2+ goals

59%

Mighty Tigers 3+ goals

32%

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

42%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

11%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)

89%

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more

72%

level

19%

Songwe Border United scores more

9%

Mighty Tigers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff