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Mighty Tigers vs Sable Farming — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sable Farming
Sable Farming
H. Chimwaza 90+3'
S. Singa 37'
8/6/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mighty Tigers49%
×Draw29%
Sable Farming22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
1.32
Sable Farming
0.78

Mighty Tigers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.11
Sable Farming
0.60

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.96
Sable Farming
1.53

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Sable Farming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
78%
Mighty Tigers or Sable Farming
71%
Draw or Sable Farming
51%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
23%
Sable Farming wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
73%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
38%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
15%
Sable Farming 1+ goals
54%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
18%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
69%
Sable Farming (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.96 · 74 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.11 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
49%
level
29%
Sable Farming scores more
22%

Mighty Tigers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
S. Singa
90+3'
H. Chimwaza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mighty Tigers 0–2 Sable Farming

Sable Farming beat Mighty Tigers 2-0 in Super League on August 6, 2022.

Goals: S. Singa (37'), H. Chimwaza (90+3').

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.