Mighty Tigers 5–0 Rumphi United: Result & Stats

Mighty Tigers

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rumphi United

9/24/2022

Super League · Round 18Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mighty Tigers69%

×Draw19%

Rumphi United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mighty TigersExpected goals in this matchRumphi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.69

Mighty Tigers

2.06

Rumphi United

0.69

Mighty Tigers creates 199% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

1.06

creates per match

0.40

0.97

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Mighty Tigers

1.06

Rumphi United

0.40

allows per match

Mighty Tigers

0.97

Rumphi United

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Rumphi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Rumphi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw

89%

Mighty Tigers or Rumphi United

81%

Draw or Rumphi United

31%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+

44%

Rumphi United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals

87%

Mighty Tigers 2+ goals

61%

Mighty Tigers 3+ goals

34%

Rumphi United 1+ goals

50%

Rumphi United 2+ goals

15%

Rumphi United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)

86%

Rumphi United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Rumphi United away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Rumphi United defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Rumphi United attack 0.40 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more

69%

level

19%

Rumphi United scores more

11%

Mighty Tigers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff