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Mighty Tigers vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Red Lions
Red Lions
9/10/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mighty Tigers45%
×Draw29%
Red Lions26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
1.27
Red Lions
0.90

Mighty Tigers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
74%
Mighty Tigers or Red Lions
71%
Draw or Red Lions
55%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
20%
Red Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
72%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
36%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
14%
Red Lions 1+ goals
59%
Red Lions 2+ goals
23%
Red Lions 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
63%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
45%
level
29%
Red Lions scores more
26%

Mighty Tigers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Tigers vs Red Lions

Mighty Tigers beat Red Lions 1-0 in Super League on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.