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Mighty Tigers vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
11/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mighty Tigers27%
×Draw31%
Nyasa Big Bullets42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
0.81
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.10

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
58%
Mighty Tigers or Nyasa Big Bullets
69%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
73%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
8%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
56%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
19%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
5%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
67%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
30%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
39%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.81

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
27%
level
31%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
42%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Tigers vs Nyasa Big Bullets

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Mighty Tigers 3-0 in Super League on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.