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Mighty Tigers vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
1 – 0
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
7/28/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Mulanje Park Stadium (Mulanje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mighty Tigers54%
×Draw26%
Ntopwa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
1.53
Ntopwa
0.83

Mighty Tigers creates 84% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
80%
Mighty Tigers or Ntopwa
74%
Draw or Ntopwa
46%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
28%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
78%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
45%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
20%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
56%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
20%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
73%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
54%
level
26%
Ntopwa scores more
20%

Mighty Tigers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Tigers vs Ntopwa

Mighty Tigers beat Ntopwa 1-0 in Super League on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Mulanje Park Stadium (Mulanje).