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Mighty Tigers vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
4/21/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Mighty Tigers49%
×Draw28%
Dedza Dynamos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
1.38
Dedza Dynamos
0.88

Mighty Tigers creates 57% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
76%
Mighty Tigers or Dedza Dynamos
72%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
51%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
23%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
75%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
40%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
16%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
59%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
22%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
67%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
49%
level
28%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
24%

Mighty Tigers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Tigers vs Dedza Dynamos

Mighty Tigers beat Dedza Dynamos 2-0 in Super League on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.