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Mighty Tigers vs Be Forward Wanderers — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
6/30/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mighty Tigers27%
×Draw31%
Be Forward Wanderers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
0.83
Be Forward Wanderers
1.11

Be Forward Wanderers creates 34% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 82 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Be Forward Wanderers
1.26

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Be Forward Wanderers
0.61

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
58%
Mighty Tigers or Be Forward Wanderers
69%
Draw or Be Forward Wanderers
73%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
9%
Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
56%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
20%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
5%
Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
67%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
30%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
39%
Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
27%
level
31%
Be Forward Wanderers scores more
42%

Be Forward Wanderers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mighty Tigers 1–2 Be Forward Wanderers

Be Forward Wanderers beat Mighty Tigers 2-1 in Super League on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.