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Mighty Tigers vs Bangwe All Stars — Super League 2026

Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
10/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mighty Tigers46%
×Draw29%
Bangwe All Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Tigers
1.27
Bangwe All Stars
0.85

Mighty Tigers creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mighty Tigers
1.06
Bangwe All Stars
0.73

allows per match

Mighty Tigers
0.97
Bangwe All Stars
1.47

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par
Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Bangwe All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw
75%
Mighty Tigers or Bangwe All Stars
71%
Draw or Bangwe All Stars
54%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
21%
Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
72%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
36%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
14%
Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
57%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
21%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
65%
Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more
46%
level
29%
Bangwe All Stars scores more
25%

Mighty Tigers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Tigers vs Bangwe All Stars

Mighty Tigers beat Bangwe All Stars 1-0 in Super League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.