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Mighty Royals vs Dormaa — Division One League 2025

Mighty Royals
Mighty Royals
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dormaa
Dormaa
3/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mighty Royals56%
×Draw20%
Dormaa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Royals
2.29
Dormaa
1.47

Mighty Royals creates 56% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mighty Royals
2.29
Dormaa
1.86

allows per match

Mighty Royals
1.07
Dormaa
2.29

finishing

Mighty Royals+0.00on par
Dormaa+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Royals ↓

Dormaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Mighty Royals or draw
76%
Mighty Royals or Dormaa
80%
Draw or Dormaa
44%

Winning margin

Mighty Royals wins by 2+
34%
Dormaa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mighty Royals 1+ goals
90%
Mighty Royals 2+ goals
66%
Mighty Royals 3+ goals
40%
Dormaa 1+ goals
77%
Dormaa 2+ goals
43%
Dormaa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mighty Royals (draw refunded)
70%
Dormaa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Royals at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Dormaa away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Royals attack 2.29 + Dormaa defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.29

Dormaa attack 1.86 + Mighty Royals defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mighty Royals scores more
56%
level
20%
Dormaa scores more
24%

Mighty Royals at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mighty Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Mighty Royals 3–2 Dormaa

Mighty Royals beat Dormaa 3-2 in Division One League on March 1, 2026.