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Mighty Barrolle vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
0 – 0
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
11/8/2020LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 2Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mighty Barrolle54%
×Draw22%
NPA Anchors24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.98
NPA Anchors
1.24

Mighty Barrolle creates 60% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
76%
Mighty Barrolle or NPA Anchors
78%
Draw or NPA Anchors
46%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
32%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
86%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
59%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
31%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
71%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
35%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
70%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
54%
level
22%
NPA Anchors scores more
24%

Mighty Barrolle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Barrolle vs NPA Anchors

Mighty Barrolle and NPA Anchors drew 0-0 in LFA First Division on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.