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Mighty Barrolle vs Nimba FC — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
1 – 1
Nimba FC
Nimba FC
2/17/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 10Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mighty Barrolle52%
×Draw22%
Nimba FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
2.02
Nimba FC
1.38

Mighty Barrolle creates 46% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
Nimba FC
1.10

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
Nimba FC
2.30

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
Nimba FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Nimba FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
74%
Mighty Barrolle or Nimba FC
78%
Draw or Nimba FC
48%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
30%
Nimba FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
87%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
60%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
33%
Nimba FC 1+ goals
75%
Nimba FC 2+ goals
40%
Nimba FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
67%
Nimba FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Nimba FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Nimba FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.02

Nimba FC attack 1.10 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
52%
level
22%
Nimba FC scores more
26%

Mighty Barrolle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Mighty Barrolle 1–1 Nimba FC

Mighty Barrolle and Nimba FC drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.