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Mighty Barrolle vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
2 – 0
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
3/13/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mighty Barrolle35%
×Draw24%
LPRC Oilers41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.49
LPRC Oilers
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 75 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
59%
Mighty Barrolle or LPRC Oilers
76%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
65%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
17%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
77%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
44%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
19%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
80%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
48%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
46%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
35%
level
24%
LPRC Oilers scores more
41%

LPRC Oilers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Barrolle vs LPRC Oilers

Mighty Barrolle beat LPRC Oilers 2-0 in LFA First Division on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.