LPRC Oilers 2–4 Mighty Barrolle: Result & Stats

LPRC Oilers

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 4

Mighty Barrolle

1/26/2023

LFA First Division · Round 14TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

LPRC Oilers40%

×Draw24%

Mighty Barrolle36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPRC OilersExpected goals in this matchMighty Barrolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.44

LPRC Oilers

1.54

Mighty Barrolle

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

1.67

creates per match

1.48

1.39

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

LPRC Oilers

1.67

Mighty Barrolle

1.48

allows per match

LPRC Oilers

1.39

Mighty Barrolle

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Mighty Barrolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw

64%

LPRC Oilers or Mighty Barrolle

76%

Draw or Mighty Barrolle

60%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

20%

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

79%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

45%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

20%

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals

76%

Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals

42%

Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

53%

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more

40%

level

24%

Mighty Barrolle scores more

36%

LPRC Oilers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff