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Mighty Barrolle vs Global Pharma — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 1
Global Pharma
Global Pharma
4/7/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mighty Barrolle47%
×Draw24%
Global Pharma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.69
Global Pharma
1.29

Mighty Barrolle creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
Global Pharma
0.92

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
Global Pharma
1.65

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Global Pharma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
71%
Mighty Barrolle or Global Pharma
76%
Draw or Global Pharma
53%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
25%
Global Pharma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
82%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
50%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
24%
Global Pharma 1+ goals
72%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
37%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
61%
Global Pharma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
47%
level
24%
Global Pharma scores more
29%

Mighty Barrolle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Mighty Barrolle 2–0 Global Pharma

Mighty Barrolle beat Global Pharma 2-0 in LFA First Division on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.