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Mighty Barrolle vs Discoveries — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
3 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Discoveries
Discoveries
12/5/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 13Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mighty Barrolle35%
×Draw24%
Discoveries42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.48
Discoveries
1.65

Discoveries creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
Discoveries
1.63

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
Discoveries
1.22

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
Discoveries+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Discoveries →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
58%
Mighty Barrolle or Discoveries
76%
Draw or Discoveries
65%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
16%
Discoveries wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
77%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
43%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
19%
Discoveries 1+ goals
81%
Discoveries 2+ goals
49%
Discoveries 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
45%
Discoveries (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Discoveries away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Discoveries defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Discoveries attack 1.63 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
35%
level
24%
Discoveries scores more
42%

Discoveries at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Discoveries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Mighty Barrolle 3–6 Discoveries

Discoveries beat Mighty Barrolle 6-3 in LFA First Division on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.